16 results
3113 Formative Evaluation of a Safety Baby Shower Intervention for Rural African American Parents and Community Advisors
- Rosemary Nabaweesi, Mary Aitken, Samantha H. Mullins, Keneshia Bryant-Moore, Geoffrey M. Curran, Zenobia Harris
-
- Journal:
- Journal of Clinical and Translational Science / Volume 3 / Issue s1 / March 2019
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 26 March 2019, pp. 89-90
-
- Article
-
- You have access Access
- Open access
- Export citation
-
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: To explore rural African American parents’ and their community advisors’ perspectives on the Safety Baby Shower’s acceptability, feasibility, and adaptability. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Collaborating with a local community organization, we explored community advisors’ and expectant women’s SBS experiences to understand intervention delivery and adoption in a rural underserved community (RUC). The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research guided our data collection and analysis using focus groups and key informant interviews. We used directed content analysis to generate themes and sub codes. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Five focus groups (21 participants) and one key informant interview were conducted. Identified barriers that hinder feasibility and acceptability included resources, time/ flexibility, intervention location, cultural norms and beliefs, and the lack of a birthing hospital in the county. “Baby proofing”, “reinforcement products” and “teaching sleep safety on the same day as infant clinical appointment” are expectant mothers’ exemplars for what comes to their minds when asked to think about safety baby showers. To improve feasibility, both community advisors and expectant mothers suggested adaptations ranging from decentralizing or rotating intervention location, using different delivery sites such as churches, scheduling intervention outside business hours, to incorporating intervention into school health fairs and barbeque events. Social media emerged as a facilitator, and integrating safe sleep education into personal baby showers emerged as an implementation strategy. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: The community advisors and expectant mothers identified a wide spectrum of potential adaptations that have potential to improve safe sleep knowledge and practices. In the next study phase, identified themes will inform intervention adaptation and suggested implementation strategies will support uptake of the adapted SBS. Identifying transformative implementation strategies and conducting a community-informed SBS adaptation using a collective decision-making process between intervention experts and local community partners will support improved safety baby shower delivery, adoption and sustainability in RUCs.
Contributors
-
- By Mitchell Aboulafia, Frederick Adams, Marilyn McCord Adams, Robert M. Adams, Laird Addis, James W. Allard, David Allison, William P. Alston, Karl Ameriks, C. Anthony Anderson, David Leech Anderson, Lanier Anderson, Roger Ariew, David Armstrong, Denis G. Arnold, E. J. Ashworth, Margaret Atherton, Robin Attfield, Bruce Aune, Edward Wilson Averill, Jody Azzouni, Kent Bach, Andrew Bailey, Lynne Rudder Baker, Thomas R. Baldwin, Jon Barwise, George Bealer, William Bechtel, Lawrence C. Becker, Mark A. Bedau, Ernst Behler, José A. Benardete, Ermanno Bencivenga, Jan Berg, Michael Bergmann, Robert L. Bernasconi, Sven Bernecker, Bernard Berofsky, Rod Bertolet, Charles J. Beyer, Christian Beyer, Joseph Bien, Joseph Bien, Peg Birmingham, Ivan Boh, James Bohman, Daniel Bonevac, Laurence BonJour, William J. Bouwsma, Raymond D. Bradley, Myles Brand, Richard B. Brandt, Michael E. Bratman, Stephen E. Braude, Daniel Breazeale, Angela Breitenbach, Jason Bridges, David O. Brink, Gordon G. Brittan, Justin Broackes, Dan W. Brock, Aaron Bronfman, Jeffrey E. Brower, Bartosz Brozek, Anthony Brueckner, Jeffrey Bub, Lara Buchak, Otavio Bueno, Ann E. Bumpus, Robert W. Burch, John Burgess, Arthur W. Burks, Panayot Butchvarov, Robert E. Butts, Marina Bykova, Patrick Byrne, David Carr, Noël Carroll, Edward S. Casey, Victor Caston, Victor Caston, Albert Casullo, Robert L. Causey, Alan K. L. Chan, Ruth Chang, Deen K. Chatterjee, Andrew Chignell, Roderick M. Chisholm, Kelly J. Clark, E. J. Coffman, Robin Collins, Brian P. Copenhaver, John Corcoran, John Cottingham, Roger Crisp, Frederick J. Crosson, Antonio S. Cua, Phillip D. Cummins, Martin Curd, Adam Cureton, Andrew Cutrofello, Stephen Darwall, Paul Sheldon Davies, Wayne A. Davis, Timothy Joseph Day, Claudio de Almeida, Mario De Caro, Mario De Caro, John Deigh, C. F. Delaney, Daniel C. Dennett, Michael R. DePaul, Michael Detlefsen, Daniel Trent Devereux, Philip E. Devine, John M. Dillon, Martin C. Dillon, Robert DiSalle, Mary Domski, Alan Donagan, Paul Draper, Fred Dretske, Mircea Dumitru, Wilhelm Dupré, Gerald Dworkin, John Earman, Ellery Eells, Catherine Z. Elgin, Berent Enç, Ronald P. Endicott, Edward Erwin, John Etchemendy, C. Stephen Evans, Susan L. Feagin, Solomon Feferman, Richard Feldman, Arthur Fine, Maurice A. Finocchiaro, William FitzPatrick, Richard E. Flathman, Gvozden Flego, Richard Foley, Graeme Forbes, Rainer Forst, Malcolm R. Forster, Daniel Fouke, Patrick Francken, Samuel Freeman, Elizabeth Fricker, Miranda Fricker, Michael Friedman, Michael Fuerstein, Richard A. Fumerton, Alan Gabbey, Pieranna Garavaso, Daniel Garber, Jorge L. A. Garcia, Robert K. Garcia, Don Garrett, Philip Gasper, Gerald Gaus, Berys Gaut, Bernard Gert, Roger F. Gibson, Cody Gilmore, Carl Ginet, Alan H. Goldman, Alvin I. Goldman, Alfonso Gömez-Lobo, Lenn E. Goodman, Robert M. Gordon, Stefan Gosepath, Jorge J. E. Gracia, Daniel W. Graham, George A. Graham, Peter J. Graham, Richard E. Grandy, I. Grattan-Guinness, John Greco, Philip T. Grier, Nicholas Griffin, Nicholas Griffin, David A. Griffiths, Paul J. Griffiths, Stephen R. Grimm, Charles L. Griswold, Charles B. Guignon, Pete A. Y. Gunter, Dimitri Gutas, Gary Gutting, Paul Guyer, Kwame Gyekye, Oscar A. Haac, Raul Hakli, Raul Hakli, Michael Hallett, Edward C. Halper, Jean Hampton, R. James Hankinson, K. R. Hanley, Russell Hardin, Robert M. Harnish, William Harper, David Harrah, Kevin Hart, Ali Hasan, William Hasker, John Haugeland, Roger Hausheer, William Heald, Peter Heath, Richard Heck, John F. Heil, Vincent F. Hendricks, Stephen Hetherington, Francis Heylighen, Kathleen Marie Higgins, Risto Hilpinen, Harold T. Hodes, Joshua Hoffman, Alan Holland, Robert L. Holmes, Richard Holton, Brad W. Hooker, Terence E. Horgan, Tamara Horowitz, Paul Horwich, Vittorio Hösle, Paul Hoβfeld, Daniel Howard-Snyder, Frances Howard-Snyder, Anne Hudson, Deal W. Hudson, Carl A. Huffman, David L. Hull, Patricia Huntington, Thomas Hurka, Paul Hurley, Rosalind Hursthouse, Guillermo Hurtado, Ronald E. Hustwit, Sarah Hutton, Jonathan Jenkins Ichikawa, Harry A. Ide, David Ingram, Philip J. Ivanhoe, Alfred L. Ivry, Frank Jackson, Dale Jacquette, Joseph Jedwab, Richard Jeffrey, David Alan Johnson, Edward Johnson, Mark D. Jordan, Richard Joyce, Hwa Yol Jung, Robert Hillary Kane, Tomis Kapitan, Jacquelyn Ann K. Kegley, James A. Keller, Ralph Kennedy, Sergei Khoruzhii, Jaegwon Kim, Yersu Kim, Nathan L. King, Patricia Kitcher, Peter D. Klein, E. D. Klemke, Virginia Klenk, George L. Kline, Christian Klotz, Simo Knuuttila, Joseph J. Kockelmans, Konstantin Kolenda, Sebastian Tomasz Kołodziejczyk, Isaac Kramnick, Richard Kraut, Fred Kroon, Manfred Kuehn, Steven T. Kuhn, Henry E. Kyburg, John Lachs, Jennifer Lackey, Stephen E. Lahey, Andrea Lavazza, Thomas H. Leahey, Joo Heung Lee, Keith Lehrer, Dorothy Leland, Noah M. Lemos, Ernest LePore, Sarah-Jane Leslie, Isaac Levi, Andrew Levine, Alan E. Lewis, Daniel E. Little, Shu-hsien Liu, Shu-hsien Liu, Alan K. L. Chan, Brian Loar, Lawrence B. Lombard, John Longeway, Dominic McIver Lopes, Michael J. Loux, E. J. Lowe, Steven Luper, Eugene C. Luschei, William G. Lycan, David Lyons, David Macarthur, Danielle Macbeth, Scott MacDonald, Jacob L. Mackey, Louis H. Mackey, Penelope Mackie, Edward H. Madden, Penelope Maddy, G. B. Madison, Bernd Magnus, Pekka Mäkelä, Rudolf A. Makkreel, David Manley, William E. Mann (W.E.M.), Vladimir Marchenkov, Peter Markie, Jean-Pierre Marquis, Ausonio Marras, Mike W. Martin, A. P. Martinich, William L. McBride, David McCabe, Storrs McCall, Hugh J. McCann, Robert N. McCauley, John J. McDermott, Sarah McGrath, Ralph McInerny, Daniel J. McKaughan, Thomas McKay, Michael McKinsey, Brian P. McLaughlin, Ernan McMullin, Anthonie Meijers, Jack W. Meiland, William Jason Melanson, Alfred R. Mele, Joseph R. Mendola, Christopher Menzel, Michael J. Meyer, Christian B. Miller, David W. Miller, Peter Millican, Robert N. Minor, Phillip Mitsis, James A. Montmarquet, Michael S. Moore, Tim Moore, Benjamin Morison, Donald R. Morrison, Stephen J. Morse, Paul K. Moser, Alexander P. D. Mourelatos, Ian Mueller, James Bernard Murphy, Mark C. Murphy, Steven Nadler, Jan Narveson, Alan Nelson, Jerome Neu, Samuel Newlands, Kai Nielsen, Ilkka Niiniluoto, Carlos G. Noreña, Calvin G. Normore, David Fate Norton, Nikolaj Nottelmann, Donald Nute, David S. Oderberg, Steve Odin, Michael O’Rourke, Willard G. Oxtoby, Heinz Paetzold, George S. Pappas, Anthony J. Parel, Lydia Patton, R. P. Peerenboom, Francis Jeffry Pelletier, Adriaan T. Peperzak, Derk Pereboom, Jaroslav Peregrin, Glen Pettigrove, Philip Pettit, Edmund L. Pincoffs, Andrew Pinsent, Robert B. Pippin, Alvin Plantinga, Louis P. Pojman, Richard H. Popkin, John F. Post, Carl J. Posy, William J. Prior, Richard Purtill, Michael Quante, Philip L. Quinn, Philip L. Quinn, Elizabeth S. Radcliffe, Diana Raffman, Gerard Raulet, Stephen L. Read, Andrews Reath, Andrew Reisner, Nicholas Rescher, Henry S. Richardson, Robert C. Richardson, Thomas Ricketts, Wayne D. Riggs, Mark Roberts, Robert C. Roberts, Luke Robinson, Alexander Rosenberg, Gary Rosenkranz, Bernice Glatzer Rosenthal, Adina L. Roskies, William L. Rowe, T. M. Rudavsky, Michael Ruse, Bruce Russell, Lilly-Marlene Russow, Dan Ryder, R. M. Sainsbury, Joseph Salerno, Nathan Salmon, Wesley C. Salmon, Constantine Sandis, David H. Sanford, Marco Santambrogio, David Sapire, Ruth A. Saunders, Geoffrey Sayre-McCord, Charles Sayward, James P. Scanlan, Richard Schacht, Tamar Schapiro, Frederick F. Schmitt, Jerome B. Schneewind, Calvin O. Schrag, Alan D. Schrift, George F. Schumm, Jean-Loup Seban, David N. Sedley, Kenneth Seeskin, Krister Segerberg, Charlene Haddock Seigfried, Dennis M. Senchuk, James F. Sennett, William Lad Sessions, Stewart Shapiro, Tommie Shelby, Donald W. Sherburne, Christopher Shields, Roger A. Shiner, Sydney Shoemaker, Robert K. Shope, Kwong-loi Shun, Wilfried Sieg, A. John Simmons, Robert L. Simon, Marcus G. Singer, Georgette Sinkler, Walter Sinnott-Armstrong, Matti T. Sintonen, Lawrence Sklar, Brian Skyrms, Robert C. Sleigh, Michael Anthony Slote, Hans Sluga, Barry Smith, Michael Smith, Robin Smith, Robert Sokolowski, Robert C. Solomon, Marta Soniewicka, Philip Soper, Ernest Sosa, Nicholas Southwood, Paul Vincent Spade, T. L. S. Sprigge, Eric O. Springsted, George J. Stack, Rebecca Stangl, Jason Stanley, Florian Steinberger, Sören Stenlund, Christopher Stephens, James P. Sterba, Josef Stern, Matthias Steup, M. A. Stewart, Leopold Stubenberg, Edith Dudley Sulla, Frederick Suppe, Jere Paul Surber, David George Sussman, Sigrún Svavarsdóttir, Zeno G. Swijtink, Richard Swinburne, Charles C. Taliaferro, Robert B. Talisse, John Tasioulas, Paul Teller, Larry S. Temkin, Mark Textor, H. S. Thayer, Peter Thielke, Alan Thomas, Amie L. Thomasson, Katherine Thomson-Jones, Joshua C. Thurow, Vzalerie Tiberius, Terrence N. Tice, Paul Tidman, Mark C. Timmons, William Tolhurst, James E. Tomberlin, Rosemarie Tong, Lawrence Torcello, Kelly Trogdon, J. D. Trout, Robert E. Tully, Raimo Tuomela, John Turri, Martin M. Tweedale, Thomas Uebel, Jennifer Uleman, James Van Cleve, Harry van der Linden, Peter van Inwagen, Bryan W. Van Norden, René van Woudenberg, Donald Phillip Verene, Samantha Vice, Thomas Vinci, Donald Wayne Viney, Barbara Von Eckardt, Peter B. M. Vranas, Steven J. Wagner, William J. Wainwright, Paul E. Walker, Robert E. Wall, Craig Walton, Douglas Walton, Eric Watkins, Richard A. Watson, Michael V. Wedin, Rudolph H. Weingartner, Paul Weirich, Paul J. Weithman, Carl Wellman, Howard Wettstein, Samuel C. Wheeler, Stephen A. White, Jennifer Whiting, Edward R. Wierenga, Michael Williams, Fred Wilson, W. Kent Wilson, Kenneth P. Winkler, John F. Wippel, Jan Woleński, Allan B. Wolter, Nicholas P. Wolterstorff, Rega Wood, W. Jay Wood, Paul Woodruff, Alison Wylie, Gideon Yaffe, Takashi Yagisawa, Yutaka Yamamoto, Keith E. Yandell, Xiaomei Yang, Dean Zimmerman, Günter Zoller, Catherine Zuckert, Michael Zuckert, Jack A. Zupko (J.A.Z.)
- Edited by Robert Audi, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
-
- Book:
- The Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy
- Published online:
- 05 August 2015
- Print publication:
- 27 April 2015, pp ix-xxx
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
Index
- Edited by Kajal Lahiri, State University of New York, Albany, Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University, New York
-
- Book:
- Leading Economic Indicators
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 25 January 1991, pp 461-464
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
Leading Economic Indicators
- New Approaches and Forecasting Records
- Edited by Kajal Lahiri, Geoffrey H. Moore
-
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 25 January 1991
-
Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.
21 - Purchasing management survey data: Their value as leading indicators
-
- By Philip A. Klein, Pennsylvania State University, Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University
- Edited by Kajal Lahiri, State University of New York, Albany, Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University, New York
-
- Book:
- Leading Economic Indicators
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 25 January 1991, pp 403-428
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
-
Summary
In the ongoing effort to utilize and improve the forecasting properties of leading indicators, analysts on both sides of the Atlantic and Pacific are increasingly combining quantitative indicators of the sort pioneered by Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell with qualitative survey data. We have in the past considered the forecasting usefulness of a number of surveys, including the surveys conducted by the European Economic Community, the Confederation of British Industry in the United Kingdom, Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and the Michigan Survey Research Center in the United States. In a paper we presented at the September 1985 meeting of CIRET in Vienna, we explored some of the forecasting properties of the price surveys conducted by the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) in the United States (Moore and Klein, 1985). One of the unique features of this survey is that it reports buying prices rather than selling prices, and we examined some of the relationships between this survey and measures of price fluctuations.
The preliminary work with the NAPM data proved so promising that we here concentrate on this source and develop the analysis not only of prices but also of other leading indicators, namely, new orders, inventory change, and vendor performance. In each case we shall compare the turning points in the NAPM series with the U.S. business cycle chronology as well as with comparable quantitative series. Correlation analyses will also be used. In this way we can evaluate the overall usefulness for forecasting of a data set that we believe has been underutilized thus far.
Frontmatter
- Edited by Kajal Lahiri, State University of New York, Albany, Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University, New York
-
- Book:
- Leading Economic Indicators
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 25 January 1991, pp i-iv
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
8 - New developments in leading indicators
-
- By Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University
- Edited by Kajal Lahiri, State University of New York, Albany, Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University, New York
-
- Book:
- Leading Economic Indicators
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 25 January 1991, pp 141-148
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
-
Summary
Long-leading versus short-leading indicators
Most of the leading indicators that have been in use for many years have relatively short leads, averaging about six or eight months at business cycle peaks, when recessions begin, and two to four months at troughs, when recoveries start. Since there are often delays of a month or so in reporting the figures, and even longer delays in judging whether a turn in an indicator is significant, a recession or recovery may be well under way before it can be recognized. One way to deal with this problem is to distinguish indicators with exceptionally long leads from others.
The new long-leading index currently published by the Center for International Business Cycle Research takes a step in this direction. Using the revised list of fifteen leading indicators (Moore, 1989), we classified as long-leading those that had average leads of at least twelve months at peaks and six months at troughs during 1948–82. The four indicators that qualified as long-leading were bond prices, real money supply (M2), new building permits for housing, and a profit margin indicator, the ratio of prices to unit labor costs in manufacturing. A longleading index constructed from these series is shown in Figure 8.1, together with the short-leading index based on the other eleven series. Also shown is the Department of Commerce leading index as revised in March 1989, which contains two of the series in our long-leading group (money supply and housing permits), seven series in our short-leading group, and two other series.
Contents
- Edited by Kajal Lahiri, State University of New York, Albany, Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University, New York
-
- Book:
- Leading Economic Indicators
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 25 January 1991, pp v-x
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
PART III - NEW ECONOMIC INDICATORS
- Edited by Kajal Lahiri, State University of New York, Albany, Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University, New York
-
- Book:
- Leading Economic Indicators
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 25 January 1991, pp 303-304
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
List of contributors
- Edited by Kajal Lahiri, State University of New York, Albany, Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University, New York
-
- Book:
- Leading Economic Indicators
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 25 January 1991, pp xiii-xiv
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
PART II - FORECASTING RECORDS AND METHODS OF EVALUATION
- Edited by Kajal Lahiri, State University of New York, Albany, Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University, New York
-
- Book:
- Leading Economic Indicators
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 25 January 1991, pp 149-150
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
1 - Introduction
-
- By Kajal Lahiri, State University of New York, Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University
- Edited by Kajal Lahiri, State University of New York, Albany, Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University, New York
-
- Book:
- Leading Economic Indicators
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 25 January 1991, pp 1-12
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
-
Summary
The leading indicator approach
The leading indicator approach to economic and business forecasting is based on the view that market-oriented economies experience business cycles within which repetitive sequences occur and that these sequences underlie the generation of the business cycle itself. Wesley Mitchell (1927), one of the founders of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), first established a workable definition of business cycles, and Burns and Mitchell (1946) rephrased it as follows:
Business cycles are a type of fluctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work mainly in business enterprises: a cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recessions, contractions and revivals that merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle; this sequence of changes is recurrent but not periodic. In duration business cycles vary from more than a year to ten or twelve years; they are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar character with amplitudes approximating their own.
The leading economic indicator (LEI) approach then is to find the repetitive sequences, to explain them, and to use them to identify and to forecast emerging stages of the current business cycle.
The approach differs from the usual econometric model, which does not differentiate business cycles from other economic fluctuations, except perhaps seasonal variation.
Preface
-
- By Kajal Lahiri, State University of New York, Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University
- Edited by Kajal Lahiri, State University of New York, Albany, Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University, New York
-
- Book:
- Leading Economic Indicators
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 25 January 1991, pp xi-xii
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
-
Summary
The immediate origin of this book was a conference held at the State University of New York at Albany in May 1987 at which a number of well-known exponents of leading indicators research were invited to offer their views on this subject. During the conference the need was felt for a volume that would systematically explain and evaluate the old and the new emerging techniques dealing with leading economic indicators. Thus, the volume is not the proceedings of the conference, but rather a collection of mostly previously unpublished articles broadly representing current research in this field. A number of authors were commissioned to write chapters on specific topics, and the two editors undertook to provide an appropriate framework. Many of the economists whose work has been central to the development of leading indicators report new research, review progress in specific areas, and discuss directions for further work. We hope that the book will prove useful to university economists and students interested in business cycles and forecasting, as well as to those in business firms, government agencies, and international organizations who wish to keep abreast of new developments in this field and adapt them for practical use.
The editors are grateful to the authors for their contributions, their involvement in revising their own chapters, and their patience during the course of the production of the book.
15 - Forecasting recessions under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings law
-
- By Victor Zarnowitz, University of Chicago, Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University
- Edited by Kajal Lahiri, State University of New York, Albany, Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University, New York
-
- Book:
- Leading Economic Indicators
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 25 January 1991, pp 257-274
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
-
Summary
The Gramm-Rudman-Hollings (GRH) law passed by the Congress in December 1985 establishes a process whereby the Federal budget deficits are to be gradually phased out by the fiscal year (FY) 1991. A series of targeted ceilings on the unified budget deficit is instituted, beginning with $172 billion for FY 1986 and $144 billion for FY 1987 and proceeding by decrements of $36 billion per year to zero in FY 1991. The planned reductions are to be achieved by spending and tax measures agreed upon by the legislative and executive branches of the U.S. government. However, if an agreement is not reached, the target for any FY is to be achieved through an automatic across-the-board spending cut in all eligible defense and nondefense categories. Early in 1986 a lower court ruled that the sequestering provision of GRH is unconstitutional; this ruling was confirmed by the Supreme Court on July 7, 1986. This does not pertain to the issues discussed in this paper.
Section 254 of the GRH law provides for “Special Procedures in the Event of a Recession.” It states that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director shall notify the Congress at any time (a) if the CBO or the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) “as determined that real economic growth is projected or estimated to be less than zero with respect to each of any two consecutive quarters” within a period of six successive quarters starting with the one preceding such notification, or (b) “if the Department of Commerce preliminary report of actual real economic growth (or any subsequent revision thereof) indicates that the rate of real economic growth for each of the most recent reported quarter and the immediately preceding quarter is less than one percent.”
PART I - NEW CONCEPTS AND METHODS
- Edited by Kajal Lahiri, State University of New York, Albany, Geoffrey H. Moore, Columbia University, New York
-
- Book:
- Leading Economic Indicators
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 25 January 1991, pp 13-14
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
Production in the United States, 1860–1914. By Edwin Frickey. [Harvard Economic Studies, Vol. LXXXII.] Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1947. Pp. xii, 265. $4.00.
- Geoffrey H. Moore
-
- Journal:
- The Journal of Economic History / Volume 8 / Issue 2 / November 1948
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 03 February 2011, pp. 224-226
- Print publication:
- November 1948
-
- Article
- Export citation